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Financial News: Eurozone Export Growth Likely To Accelerate In Coming

Eurozone Export Growth Likely To Accelerate In Coming Months

11/20/2017 - 06:08:00 (RTTNews)

(RTTNews) - Growth in Eurozone export volumes may accelerate in the coming months despite the appreciation of the euro this year, Jack Allen, an economist at Capital Economics, said.

The seasonally-adjusted goods trade surplus rose from EUR 21.0 billion in August to EUR 25 billion in September, leaving the surplus at its highest level on record, data from Eurostat showed on November 15.

The increase in surplus was driven by a 1.1 percent monthly growth in exports amid a 1.2 percent decline in imports.

On an annual basis, export growth picked up from 6.8 percent to a four-month high of 8.8 percent, while import growth slowed from 9.1 percent to 8.0 percent.

"The widening of the euro-zone's goods trade surplus in September adds to the evidence that net exports boosted GDP in Q3," the economist observed.

With support to this, Allen pointed out that the goods trade surplus grew from EUR 58.9 billion in Q2 to EUR 64.2 billion in Q3, an increase equivalent to 0.2 percent of GDP.

This was a bigger increase than in Q2, implying that the slowdown in quarterly GDP growth from 0.7 percent in Q2 to 0.6 percent in Q3 was driven by domestic demand.

However, as monthly goods trade values data are not a perfect guide to the goods and services trade, volumes data used to construct GDP.

The euro's recent rise may have pushed the trade surplus up in values terms but not volumes terms.

But, Capital Economics noted that net exports boosted growth in Germany and the Netherlands, while they weighed on growth in France.

"Looking ahead, with the global economy in good health and world trade growing at a decent pace, surveys of export orders suggest that growth in euro-zone export volumes will accelerate," the economist predicted.

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