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Financial News: BRAZIL: Without Lula, Bolsonaro And Marina Lead Datafolha

BRAZIL: Without Lula, Bolsonaro And Marina Lead Datafolha Poll

06/11/2018 - 16:48:00 (RTTNews)

(RTTNews) - Datafolha's voting intention poll, released Sunday, showed that with former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva outside the presidential race, the representative Jair Bolsonaro and the former minister Marina Silva would lead the technically tied voting intentions with 19% and 15%, respectively. The error margin is 2 percentage points above or below.

The survey revealed that Lula remains leading the voting intentions consistently, with 30% support in the scenarios in which his name was presented. In a dispute including Lula, Bolsonaro has 17%, Marina 10%, Alckmin (PSDB) and Ciro (PDT) 6%, and Alvaro Dias (Can) 4% of voting intentions.

Datafolha, alike Ibope, carries out its pollings personally, differently from Data Poder 360 and the institute hired by XP Investimentos to make their surveys released last week. The difference in methodology between institutes may be an explanation for the difference between the results.

The survey tested three scenarios with the former president competing out of the race. In all of them, Bolsonaro has 19% and Marina between 14% and 15%. The former Sao Paulo mayor Fernando Haddad and the former governor of Bahia, Jaques Wagner, were inserted as Lula's replacements as the Workers' Party's (PT) candidates. In both scenarios, Ciro Gomes has 10% of the voting intentions, Alckmin has 7% and Alvaro Dias has 4%. Without any PT candidate, Ciro grows a point, to 11%, in third, tied technically with Marina (15%).

In the scenarios without Lula the number of votes "white and null" reaches 34%. In the scenario with the former president, that figure drops to 21%. Former Minister Henrique Meirelles (MDB), who has launched his pre-candidacy with the support of President Michel Temer, has only 1% of preferences, according to the institute.

In the second round simulations, Lula defeats all his contenders easily: Lula 49% versus Alckmin 27%.

Without Lula in the race, Bolsonaro loses in most of the simulations. Bolsonaro 32% vs. Marina 42% vs. Alckmin 33%. Marina would beat Alckmin by 42%-27%, and Ciro by 41%-29%.

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