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Forex News: Euro Weakens As ECB Cautious Over Trade War,

Euro Weakens As ECB Cautious Over Trade War, Currency Appreciation

04/12/2018 - 10:01:00 (RTTNews)

(RTTNews) - The euro declined against its most major counterparts in the European session on Thursday, after minutes from the recent monetary policy meeting showed that the policy makers of the European Central Bank cautioned that rising trade protectionism and the recent appreciation of the single currency poses downside risks to the euro area growth outlook.

There was widespread concern among members that the risks arising from trade protectionism, which could be expected to have an adverse impact on activity for all countries involved, had increased, according to the minutes from the monetary policy meeting held on January 24-25.

"It was also cautioned that negative confidence effects could arise."

Caution was voiced about the recent exchange rate appreciation, which could have a more negative impact on inflation.

"There was broad agreement among members that volatility in the exchange rate of the euro continued to be a source of uncertainty, which required monitoring with regard to its possible implications for the medium-term inflation outlook."

Members broadly agreed that the evidence for a sustained rise in inflation towards levels consistent with the Governing Council's inflation aim was still not sufficient, it showed.

Members also agreed that an ample degree of monetary policy accommodation was still needed to support the economic expansion and a rise in inflation to the Governing Council's medium-term inflation aim.

Data from Eurostat showed that Eurozone industrial production decreased for the third straight month in February.

Industrial output fell 0.8 percent month-on-month in February, following a 0.6 percent drop in January. This was the third consecutive drop and came in contrast to the expected growth of 0.1 percent.

The currency traded mixed against its major counterparts in the Asian session. While it held steady against the greenback and the pound, it rose against the yen and the franc.

The single currency declined to a 2-day low of 1.5894 against the aussie, compared to 1.5946 hit late New York Wednesday. On the downside, 1.56 is likely seen as the next support for the euro.

The 19-nation currency slipped to 1.6701 against the kiwi, a level unseen since January 24. At yesterday's close, the pair was worth 1.6804. The euro is likely to find support around the 1.65 region.

Reversing from an early high of 1.5593 against the loonie, the euro weakened to a 2-month low of 1.5499. The euro is poised to find support around the 1.52 region.

The euro depreciated 0.5 percent to a 2-day low of 1.2315 against the greenback, from a high of 1.2380 hit at 8:15 pm ET. The pair was valued at 1.2367 when it closed deals on Wednesday. The euro is seen finding support around the 1.21 area.

Data from the Labor Department showed that the first time claims for U.S. unemployment benefits decreased in the week ended April 7th.

The report said initial jobless claims fell to 233,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 242,000. Economists had expected jobless claims to drop to 230,000.

Having advanced to 0.8728 against the pound at 4:30 am ET, the euro moved down to hit a 3-week low of 0.8671. The next possible support for the euro is seen around the 0.85 level.

UK economic growth remained subdued in the first quarter despite a strong export performance, according to the latest Quarterly Economic Survey from the British Chambers of Commerce.

In the service sector, the balance of firms reporting improved export sales rose slightly to +13 from +12 and orders to +10 from +7. Domestic sales held steady at +20, while domestic orders rose to +16 from +14.

The euro eased back to 131.96 against the yen, off an early high of 132.32. This may be compared to a 2-day low of 131.80 hit at 5:00 am ET. If the euro falls further, 130.00 is possibly seen as its support level.

On the flip side, the euro held steady against the Swiss franc, after having advanced to more than a 3-year high of 1.1890 at 7:20 am ET. The euro-franc pair finished Wednesday's trading at 1.1843.

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